Follow the Money

How to read this chart: Each line shows what a $1,000 investment made on Inauguration Day would be worth over time. All three presidents are measured over the same number of trading days (298) from their respective start dates, so the comparison is apples-to-apples. Obama's dramatic gains reflect recovery from the 2008 financial crisis floor. Data sourced from Yahoo Finance daily closing prices.

Data note: Weekly trend data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), which tracks 9 states plus the national average. Current state-by-state prices from AAA’s daily survey of 150,000+ stations. The national average on Inauguration Day was $3.229/gallon; it currently stands at $4.515/gallon (AAA, May 18 reading), a 39.8% increase — driven by the Iran war (Day 81). AAA reported the national average has now risen 25¢ in two consecutive weeks. After the brief mid-April dip to $4.02 on the Apr 7 ceasefire, prices ran back to $4.22 by Apr 29 and have continued climbing through May. Rubio declared the combat phase of Operation Epic Fury "over" on May 5 (Day 67); Trump launched and then paused Operation Project Freedom (Hormuz escort op) within 48 hours, May 4-6. Pentagon acting CFO Jules Hurst now puts the war cost at $29 billion (House Appropriations, May 12) — independent analysts still calculate $42-54B+. Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed: Iran charging $1M/ship tolls and only allowing Chinese, Russian, Indian, Pakistani vessels. UAE confirmed its OPEC/OPEC+ exit during the first week of May. Brent crude $111/bbl on May 19 (TradingEconomics) — up 16% over the past month and 70% YoY. WTI tracking just below. California: $6.15/gal (highest in nation); Texas $4.01/gal. Diesel continues to track at roughly +50% YoY. Historical comparison: Obama-era (2009-2016) national average was $2.96/gal; Biden-era (2021-2024) was $3.48/gal with a mid-2022 peak near $5.07/gal. Today\'s Trump 2.0 price of $4.515 well exceeds the full Biden-term average and is closing on the 2022 peak of $5.01.

Data note: Prices from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Average Price survey of urban consumers. October 2025 data is missing due to the government appropriations lapse. Egg prices reflect the dramatic decline after the 2024–25 avian flu spike. Coffee prices reflect a global Arabica bean shortage. The overall CPI “Food at Home” index rose +2.1% during this period.

Context: Two distinct programs are lowering drug costs. The IRA Medicare negotiation (passed 2022, prices effective 2026) allows Medicare to negotiate prices on high-spend drugs — 10 drugs in the first round, with 15 more coming for 2027. The Most Favored Nation executive order (2025) directs that Americans pay no more than the lowest price in comparable developed nations — 16 manufacturer deals announced so far, with drugs available via TrumpRx.gov. The CPI data shows prescription drug prices overall have been flat to slightly declining (-0.5%) since January 2025, while broader medical care costs rose +3.2%. Oct 2025 BLS data unavailable due to the government appropriations lapse.