Since January 2025, voters have delivered a message in every special election they could. Democrats 9, Republicans 0. Here's the scoreboard.
Something unprecedented is happening in American elections. Since Donald Trump took office in January 2025, Democrats have won every competitive special election held in the United States — flipping 9 seats while Republicans have flipped zero. The average Democratic swing is +13 points compared to 2024 presidential margins, outperforming even the 2017 resistance wave that preceded the 2018 blue wave. With the 2026 midterm elections approaching, the generic congressional ballot, battleground Senate polling in Texas, Georgia, and South Carolina, and Trump's historically low approval ratings all point in the same direction. This tracker follows every data point in real time.
Every special election since Trump took office in January 2025
In 60 special elections across 2025, Democrats outperformed their 2024 results in 50 of 60 races.
Beyond special elections, Democrats swept the 2025 cycle. They secured their largest Virginia House majority since the 1980s, expanded control of the New Jersey Assembly, and flipped 21% of all GOP-held seats that were on the ballot — outperforming even the 2017 cycle that preceded the 2018 blue wave. Republicans did not flip a single Democratic-held seat anywhere in the country.
Democrats are showing up. Republicans aren't.
In special elections, Democrats retained 10 percentage points more of their 2024 voter turnout than Republicans. The median swing across all special elections: D+11 — the largest for either party in the Trump era.
In 2017, Democrats flipped 20% of GOP-held seats up for election. That foreshadowed the 2018 blue wave that flipped 40 House seats and gave Democrats the majority. In 2025, Democrats flipped 21% of GOP-held seats — outperforming the 2017 pace. The median swing of D+11 exceeds even 2018's D+9. Every historical indicator suggests a wave is building.
Key 2026 Senate races — and why red states are suddenly competitive
A record number of House Republicans are abandoning their seats before voters can fire them
This follows a pattern: the president's party hemorrhages incumbents before midterms they expect to lose. Of the 35 departing Republicans, 15 are retiring from public office entirely, 8 are running for Senate, and 10 are running for governor — fleeing the House for higher ground before the wave hits.
Open seats are far easier to flip than incumbents. Every Republican retirement creates a pick-up opportunity for Democrats. In 2018, the last time GOP retirements hit these levels, Democrats gained 40 House seats and flipped the majority. The combination of record retirements, a D+6 generic ballot, 37% presidential approval, an unpopular war (56% oppose), and gas surging 17.4% is the strongest set of wave indicators since Watergate. Dan Crenshaw's primary loss shows even incumbents who aren't MAGA enough are being purged — weakening the GOP bench further.
Trump's approval ratings are pulling every Republican candidate down with him
Key demographic break: Independents disapprove by a wide margin — CNN found Trump hit a new low with independents ahead of the State of the Union. Women disapprove at higher rates than men, and voters under 50 disapprove by double digits in most surveys. The Iran war has introduced a new dimension: gas prices up 17.4% since inauguration ($3.79/gal nationally) are making affordability the dominant issue, and 60% disapprove of military action in Iran (CNN, Mar 2).
The last time the numbers looked like this, Democrats flipped 40 House seats
In 2017, Democratic overperformances in Virginia, New Jersey, and special elections foreshadowed the 2018 "blue wave" — a net gain of 40 House seats that returned the majority to Democrats. The current environment is running ahead of that pace:
The path to replicating 2018 faces headwinds. Redistricting has made the House map narrower — fewer truly competitive districts exist. Polarization means fewer voters cross party lines. And the Senate map requires Democrats to defend seats in purple territory while flipping red states. The environment is strong, but the map is harder. That said, Texas, Georgia, and South Carolina weren't supposed to be competitive at all.